Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2022
According to Gerald Eve UK industrial and logistics space take-up totalled 65.8 million sq ft in 2022, which whilst down from the previous record high of 2021, was still the second most active year on record. The CBRE Monthly Index showed strong industrial rental value growth of 10.3% last year, ahead of the 9.0% increase in 2021. Occupier demand continues to be from a variety of sectors with ongoing supply chain disruption likely to accelerate the trend of near-shoring and reshoring as many companies seek to diversify points of production and to localise their supply chain.
The residential market slowed during the second half of 2022 as homebuyer demand was impacted by higher mortgage rates following the sharp increases in interest rates. Whilst new home completions increased in 2022 they remain 3% below the COVID level and at 205,000 dwellings continue to be way behind Government targets of 300,000 new homes a year, which is primarily due to delays within the planning system.
The Urban Development market continues to improve since being impacted by COVID, with strong signs that major UK regional cities are bouncing back, with an increase in mobility. There is a continued belief that by 2050, 90% of the population will live in urban areas, with people choosing to live in prime urban areas, not only for work reasons but for better lifestyle options in general.
Key long-term structural trends
Whilst e-commerce remains a structural driver of demand for logistics space it is certainly not immune from a wider economic slowdown. The decline in online retail sales during 2022, as many consumers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns, has also corresponded with a reduction in take-up from internet retailers.
Warehouse take up and availability
Industrial rent
According to Savills Research, following growth during the first nine months of 2022 UK greenfield values fell by 2.2% in the final quarter as land transactions slowed significantly due to many housebuilders pausing buying in response to slowing sales rates. However, despite the majority of national housebuilders slowing their land buying, there remains selective interest in prime sites with planning, with signs that some confidence is returning following the significant disruption caused by the 'mini-budget' in September 2022.
Land values and planning consents
UK housing completions
There has been a strong recovery in total construction activity in 2022 with annual output increasing by 5.6%. The BtR occupational market remains very buoyant with residential rents growing by 12.1% according to Zoopla in 2022. Office development in major cities has also shown improvement, with a clear trend of people returning to the workplace, with occupiers showing particularly strong demand for buildings that offer strong environmental credentials to achieving their own NZC goals.
Rental growth
Construction output